Flávio Bolsonaro holds a dominant position in Espírito Santo for the October 25 presidential runoff, reflecting his 54.78% first-round share there against Lula’s 37.76% and a mid-October Quaest poll showing him at 51% to 38%. The state’s right-leaning electorate, combined with broader momentum from Flávio’s national first-round edge and endorsements from center-right parties, has reinforced trader expectations. Lula’s lower support aligns with weaker results in southern and southeastern states. While late shifts in turnout or undecided voters could narrow margins, the current polling gap and regional patterns underpin the market’s strong consensus favoring Flávio to finish first locally.