Lula maintains a commanding lead in Ceará for the October 25 second round, driven by the state's consistent support for PT candidates and his 63.29% first-round share there against Flávio Bolsonaro's 31.27%. Multiple pre-election surveys, including Quaest and Datafolha, showed Lula at 55-60% in the state with approval of his federal government near 64%, reflecting Northeast voting patterns and alignment with the re-elected local PT governor. This regional strength contrasts with the tighter national contest, where aggregates place the candidates near parity. Trader pricing reflects these structural factors, though late shifts in turnout or national campaign dynamics could narrow the gap before polls close.