Lula's commanding position in Alagoas second-round betting reflects consistent polling leads of 18–20 points over Flávio Bolsonaro, reinforced by the president's 54.7% first-round win in the state on October 4. Recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and DataTrends show Lula capturing 55–58% support in head-to-head matchups, buoyed by strong backing in the interior, Sertão, and lower-income areas. The state governor's temporary leave to coordinate Lula's local campaign further signals organizational momentum ahead of the October 25 runoff. Flávio performs better in Maceió and parts of the coast, yet these pockets have not narrowed the statewide gap. Late shifts in urban turnout or national campaign developments could still influence the final margin before market resolution.