Morena holds the strongest position in trader consensus for the 2027 Baja California state congress election, backed by its current 15-seat majority in the 25-member legislature and recent polling that places the Morena-PT-PVEM alliance at roughly 43% preference for the concurrent gubernatorial race. October surveys from firms including Gobernarte show this coalition ahead of PAN by more than 20 points, reflecting sustained voter support in key municipalities and the party's organizational edge ahead of candidate selection processes. Opposition parties maintain smaller shares, with PAN the clearest alternative at around 21%, though internal divisions and lower name recognition limit their reach. Local legislative actions, such as the recent rejection of term-reduction proposals, have highlighted coalition dynamics without shifting broader sentiment. With the election still eight months away, undecided voters and primary outcomes could narrow or widen the gap before June 2027 voting.