Baja California’s state congressional election, part of the June 2027 concurrent vote alongside the governorship and municipal contests, remains in its earliest preparatory phase with the local process set to open in December 2026. Statewide polling shows Morena and its allies leading party identification and vote intention, yet the market’s distributed pricing among Morena, PRI, PAN, PT, PVEM, MC and others reflects the absence of finalized candidate slates, coalition agreements and district-level dynamics that will determine seat totals. Recent federal electoral preparations and internal party maneuvering have not yet produced clear separation, leaving traders focused on how candidate quality, turnout patterns and any late realignments among opposition forces could alter the balance before formal campaigning begins.