Recent military developments in Yemen have shaped assessments of effective closure risks at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. In September 2026, Houthi forces seized coastal districts including Mokha and Dhubab plus Mayyun Island, enforcing a July 20 ban on Saudi-linked vessels that cut tanker transits and prompted rerouting. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a counteroffensive in early October, claiming recapture of key positions and strait control by October 9 amid heavy air support, though Houthi statements dispute these gains and report continued hold on terrain. Missile and drone exchanges between Houthis and Saudi targets have continued, while AIS data shows traffic down roughly 15-30% from prior averages with persistent high-risk advisories. No formal closure declaration exists, and vessels still transit, but inland launch capability sustains asymmetric threat potential regardless of shoreline control. Scheduled coalition operations and any further coastal shifts in the coming weeks remain key variables for volume and insurance assessments.