Apple’s reported shift away from a near-term Vision Pro successor underpins the 97.8% market-implied odds against a 2026 release. Bloomberg’s late-September reporting on project N224 describes four early-stage concepts aimed at slashing weight through lighter materials or an external compute module, yet places any launch no earlier than late 2028 or 2029, with the effort on “life support” as staff and resources move to AI smart glasses targeted for late 2027. The 2025 M5 refresh was only a chip and band update to the original 2024 design, not a full generational leap. While a surprise acceleration remains possible if prototype performance exceeds expectations or leadership reverses priorities, current timelines, canceled lower-cost variants, and competitive mixed-reality focus make a pre-2027 debut highly improbable.