Anthropic’s aggressive push toward a November 2026 IPO at a targeted $1.8–2 trillion valuation drives the 97.2% market-implied probability against acquisition before 2027. Fresh from a $65 billion Series H round at $965 billion in May and backed by major stakes from Amazon and Google, the company is disclosing Q3 financials to institutional investors this week while filing confidentially with the SEC. Its rapid revenue growth—nearly $4.6 billion in 2025—combined with ongoing acqui-hires for capabilities like confidential computing and developer tools, signals a strategy of independent scaling rather than a sale. Antitrust scrutiny of large AI deals and the high cost of absorbing such a valuation further reinforce trader consensus. A sudden strategic pivot or regulatory block on the IPO remains the primary low-probability risk that could reopen acquisition talks.