**Nigel Farage triggered and won a Clacton by-election in August 2026 after resigning amid scrutiny of a £5 million gift, securing 63.3% of the vote against a record field of candidates.** An ongoing parliamentary standards investigation into whether the gift required proper declaration has resumed, with the commissioner expected to issue findings soon. Any referral to the Commons Committee on Standards would still require a recommended suspension exceeding 10 sitting days, a House vote, and a successful recall petition signed by 10% of constituents before another by-election could be called. Multiple procedural stages, uncertain outcomes, and limited time remaining in 2026 make the process unlikely to conclude with a writ issued this year, supporting traders’ strong consensus against another contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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