Blue Origin’s ongoing pad reconstruction at Cape Canaveral after the May 28, 2026 New Glenn static-fire explosion drives the 97% market-implied probability against another rocket explosion by October 31. The company has publicly targeted a December return to flight, with no launches or hot-fire tests scheduled in the next two weeks amid repairs to Launch Complex 36 and qualification work on BE-4 engines. Historical patterns show major vehicle anomalies cluster around active testing or flight campaigns, not idle periods. While an accelerated static-fire attempt or regulatory waiver could theoretically create risk, the compressed timeline, FAA oversight, and infrastructure dependencies make such scenarios remote before month-end.