Omar Aziz (PSD) holds a clear lead over Professora Maria do Carmo (PL) in the Amazonas gubernatorial runoff scheduled for October 25, driven by his stronger first-round performance (40.63% to 24.49%) and the latest Quaest poll (October 9–12) showing him at 51% to her 37% among all respondents, or roughly 58% to 42% of valid votes. Traders price Aziz victory margins of 6–15 points as the most probable specific outcomes because the 12-point gap in the poll aligns with his interior municipal strength and consolidated support, while 16% of voters remain open to shifting and a single debate has already highlighted policy contrasts on health and labor rules. The low probability assigned to a Do Carmo win reflects her narrower base, concentrated mainly in Manaus, and limited time for momentum shifts before ballots close.