Trader sentiment strongly favors "No" at 91.5% implied probability due to the complete absence of any official confirmation from Alix Earle, Lando Norris, or their representatives through October 2026. Rumors began with Monaco Grand Prix sightings in June, followed by reported low-key group dates in London and Ibiza, yet both maintain strict privacy—Norris especially, consistent with his prior relationship patterns. Recent coverage centers on their exes' separate outings rather than new developments between the pair, with Earle appearing solo at events into mid-October. While a last-minute social media post or joint statement before year-end could resolve the market to "Yes," the deliberate pace and lack of momentum make confirmation unlikely.