In the 2026 Alabama U.S. Senate race between Republican Barry Moore and Democrat Everett Wess, trader expectations for total ballots cast cluster tightly around 1.5M–1.8M because the contest is rated solidly Republican with limited competitiveness. Historical midterm turnout in the state has ranged from roughly 37% in 2022 to higher presidential-year levels, and current polling averages show Moore ahead by more than 20 points, which typically dampens overall participation. Recent primary and runoff voting showed continued declines in engagement, while voter registration deadlines and early-voting patterns in the final weeks remain key variables that could shift totals within the narrow band traders currently price most heavily.