The non-competitive character of the Moore-Wess contest in solidly Republican Alabama anchors trader expectations for midterm turnout near historical benchmarks of roughly 1.4-1.7 million ballots. With the open seat rated safe Republican by forecasting models and polls showing a double-digit GOP margin, mobilization efforts focus mainly on base turnout rather than swing-voter persuasion, limiting upside surprises. Recent primary and runoff participation, combined with Alabama’s typical off-year participation rates below presidential levels, supports clustering around the 1.5-1.6 million and 1.7-1.8 million ranges. Factors that could shift probabilities include late Republican get-out-the-vote intensity, any unexpected Democratic surge in urban or Black Belt counties, or weather on November 3 that affects rural voting.