The Alabama governor race between Republican nominee Tommy Tuberville and Democrat Doug Jones centers on margin expectations because Alabama’s strong Republican base and 2024 presidential results point to a comfortable GOP win, yet recent polling shows leads ranging from single digits to nearly 20 points. Tuberville secured the Republican nomination by a wide margin in May, while Jones won the Democratic primary; a recent Alabama Supreme Court ruling resolved residency challenges in Tuberville’s favor. With the November 3 election weeks away, trader pricing clusters on 5–15 point Republican victories, reflecting typical turnout patterns, Jones’s prior statewide visibility, and limited late-cycle movement that could compress or expand the final spread.