Google’s October 1, 2026 launch of a refrigerator-sized Project Suncatcher prototype carrying four Trillium TPUs aboard a SpaceX Transporter-18 mission represents the most recent hardware test of orbital AI compute, following Starcloud’s 2025 single-H100 satellite that trained a small large language model in low Earth orbit. These efforts validate radiation tolerance and basic functionality but fall far short of the market’s 100-accelerator threshold for resolution. Scaling to operational clusters requires solving vacuum cooling, high-bandwidth laser inter-satellite links, and launch economics, with Google planning additional 2027 satellites and Starcloud targeting lunar-orbit demonstrations no earlier than 2028. Trader consensus at roughly 25% for a qualifying launch by end-2027 reflects these technical and timeline hurdles despite growing interest from SpaceX and others.