The Aguascalientes gubernatorial race remains competitive because the PAN nomination between frontrunners Leonardo Montañez Castro and Antonio Martín del Campo is unresolved, with internal surveys and party timelines still pending as the formal electoral process opened in October 2026. Recent polls show either PAN contender leading Morena-PT-PVEM candidate Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez by double-digit margins in hypothetical general-election matchups, reflecting the party's stronger state-level identification and governing record under incumbent Teresa Jiménez. Trader pricing assigns Montañez the highest probability among named options, consistent with his visibility as capital mayor and competitive internal numbers, while Martín del Campo trails on name recognition and coalition dynamics. Lower-probability contenders face structural barriers from limited polling support and party positioning. Key upcoming catalysts include the PAN's candidate-selection survey and any coalition talks that could consolidate opposition votes ahead of the June 2027 vote.