Nigeria's overall squad depth and historical dominance in African football sustain trader consensus around a 61% implied probability for the Super Eagles to claim Group L's available qualification spot, even after a 3-0 loss to Guinea-Bissau on Matchday 2. Guinea-Bissau's perfect start with six points and a +5 goal difference from victories over Tanzania and Nigeria has elevated their standing, yet their lower ranking and limited depth keep their probability near 18%. Madagascar and Tanzania sit at single points each following draws, with the hosts already assured of finals participation. The November international window fixtures will shape further movement in these probabilities.