Tunisia leads the Group H market at 55.5% implied probability as the highest-ranked side, yet the contest remains tightly bunched with Botswana, Libya, and even host Uganda showing realistic paths in trader consensus. After two matchdays, results have produced a level table: Uganda sits on 4 points as co-host already assured of finals participation, while Tunisia and Botswana each hold 2 points from draws and Libya trails on 1. Tunisia’s 2-2 results against Botswana and Uganda, alongside Uganda’s narrow win over Libya, underscore defensive resilience and limited separation in form. Remaining fixtures across November 2026 and March 2027 windows will decide the non-host qualifier, with home/away dynamics and squad depth likely to shape the final outcome in this compact group.