South Africa’s commanding start to AFCON 2027 qualifying has shaped trader consensus in Group D, where only the top non-host side advances alongside co-host Kenya. Bafana Bafana secured six points from two matches with a 2-1 victory over Guinea and a 5-0 thrashing of Eritrea, building a three-point lead and superior goal difference. Guinea sits second after a 1-0 win against Kenya but trails significantly, while Eritrea and Kenya remain winless with just one point each. Remaining fixtures, including South Africa’s November clash with Kenya and Guinea’s return match against Eritrea, will test whether the current form gap narrows, though South Africa’s early momentum and attacking output underpin their strong implied probability.