Abiy Ahmed’s re-election and swearing-in on October 5, 2026, for a second five-year term as prime minister anchors the high probability he will remain in office through the year. Ethiopia’s House of Peoples’ Representatives appointed him following the Prosperity Party’s June 1, 2026, general election victory, in which the party secured roughly 438 of 486 contested seats and a commanding parliamentary majority. This outcome, under Ethiopia’s constitutional rules requiring the majority party to form the government, delivered an institutional mandate that traders view as decisive. Ongoing security challenges in Tigray and other regions, along with diplomatic strains with Eritrea, have not altered the parliamentary arithmetic or prompted any formal removal process. International congratulations from regional leaders further reflect the continuity of his position heading into the new legislative term.