**Trader consensus at 96.9% “No” for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 rests on the documented global recurrence of megathrust events—typically one to three per century—coupled with the brief remaining window through December 2026.** USGS records confirm the most recent 9.0+ quake was the 2011 Tōhoku event (9.1), with subsequent maxima such as the 2025 Kamchatka quake near 8.8 falling short. These great subduction-zone ruptures require centuries of strain accumulation along major plate boundaries, and current global monitoring shows only background seismicity with no anomalous foreshock swarms or rapid strain signals. While an outlier full-margin rupture in zones like Cascadia or southern Chile remains theoretically possible before year-end, the short timeframe and absence of precursors keep implied odds overwhelmingly against it.