KMT leads the 2026 Taiwanese local elections party winner market at roughly 71% implied probability due to its competitive or leading positions across multiple mayoral and magistrate races ahead of the November 28 vote. Recent polling shows gains for KMT candidates in key northern and central contests alongside sustained strength in southern strongholds traditionally held by the DPP. DPP support remains solid in certain urban centers but trails overall amid legislative tensions and cross-strait policy debates. The TPP holds negligible odds given limited candidate fielding and alliances. Traders weigh these localized dynamics, historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition, and upcoming campaign events when pricing the outcome.