Ongoing Houthi-Saudi conflict, including the July 2026 Saudi shipping blockade and September seizures of Mokha port and Perim Island, has driven sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb traffic while keeping daily transits above zero. IMF PortWatch and AIS data show roughly 20–30 vessels per day recently—down from pre-2024 norms near 50—with tanker averages at 9–13 daily and some operators routing dark or via the Cape of Good Hope at added cost of 10–14 days and roughly $1 million per voyage. Elevated war-risk premiums and freight rates reflect these dynamics, alongside firm VLCC earnings near $145,000/day amid constrained oil flows. Trader-implied odds remain low for a complete daily shutdown by year-end, consistent with sustained non-Saudi-linked traffic and the economic incentive to maintain partial operations absent full naval interdiction. Key near-term catalysts include further Saudi-Houthi exchanges or any de-escalation that could shift volumes.